Many businesses rely on gas for their operations. It’s a critical expense, but often unpredictable and costly. The good news for businesses who may dread seeing this particular invoice is that some experts are predicting lower gas prices in the coming year.

U.S. gas prices set to drop.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration predicts a retail gasoline price decrease of 6% in 2026. They also predict that prices will climb 1% again in 2027, but likely remain lower than what was seen in 2025, with some regional exceptions. For example, refinery capacity limitations on the West Coast are likely to cause higher comparative prices to the rest of the country. On the other hand, businesses along the Gulf Coast can expect lower than average prices.

Why are gas prices dropping?

In the United States, the drop in gas prices is largely due to a decline in the cost of crude oil, “which has historically accounted for about 50% of the retail price. Now, that percentage is expected to fall below 45% in the coming years.” There has been a global increase in crude oil supply, but not as significant of an increase in demand, which explains this difference.

Will Canadians also see a decrease in gas prices?

It’s not as clear whether Canadians will enjoy the same lowered prices. While the global market indicates lower prices overall, a more competitive market may impact prices from Canadian producers, meaning Canadian businesses could see a drop, but less of a drop than their U.S. counterparts.

In conclusion…

Changes in the global oil market in 2026 may lead to lower gasoline prices. How much of a drop consumers and businesses alike are set to see is largely regionally dependent. Ensuring your business has a strategy to stay on top of fuel prices is still imperative.