Telecom
Trends and Predictions
My, how our
dictionary has changed. Podcast, Skype, Wikipedia, Googlebot
and WiMax were all regularly used terms during 2005. VoIP,
WiFi, Blog, iPod, and SEO are in every day vocabularies. By
the way, SEO stands for Search Engine Optimization just in
case you're uniformed like the vast majority of the populace,
and I believe Podcast was Webster's Word of The Year for
2005.
That was then, and
now it's today. What was important and functional yesterday
may not be the case tomorrow. There has been exponential
change in relation to the calendar, in the field of
communications technology advancement. What I mean by that is
that the changes that have taken place over the past year or
two have been far greater than the changes over the past
decade, which in turn have been far greater than the changes
over the past 20 years.
The common thread
among the terms above is that they either relate to wireless
or internet technologies, or both. The technology advances,
and public acceptance of those new technologies in the year
2005, have been astounding. It would follow logic that the
same will continue to happen in 2006.
So let's examine
the recent past a little more closely to see how our behavior
has been affected. John Campbell, a Telecom Consultant with
Schooley Mitchell in Halifax wrote an article for
The Nova Scotia Business Journal that described the experience
of a Marketing VP. She was booking a trip through her travel
agent and made a specific request for 'hot spots'. As little
as three years ago that probably would have meant the best
beaches, bars, and restaurants. However, she was requesting
the hotels where she could access the Internet through her
laptop using wireless technology.
Whether it's toll
booth passes, debit transactions at the gas station, or
courier package delivery, the wireless world is upon us.
Consistent with
evolutionary theory, teenagers have sprouted a new appendage.
It's a wireless device referred to as a cell phone. Except
that cell phone isn't for conversations in emergencies. It's
for text messages, playing MP3s, and downloading videos - and
of course, you simply can't be without one if you're under
25.
In other
developments, Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) has gained
wide acceptance evidenced by the wide myriad of vendors that
have entered that marketplace to carve out a piece of the
market share pie. The variant flavors and options available in
the world of VoIP seem to be increasing everyday, to the point
where it's very difficult for the average business person to
determine whether they should or shouldn't, and if they do,
which option do they choose.
Campbell
mentions Advanced
Call Routing, Unified Messaging, and long distance toll bypass
as some advantages of VoIP. The Follow-Me feature makes it
transparent to the caller in terms of whether the call is
connecting to a conference room in Orlando, a hotel room in
Vancouver, or a cottage on the Great Lakes.
Increased Internet
functionality, including Intranet, Extranet, Enterprisenet,
and more, are all variations of Internet business applications
that have become widespread in the recent past to serve the
needs of global economies. More and more 'hosted application'
are being developed, which means that you can work on the same
General Ledger or Contact Management Database in Salt Lake City and Singaporeat the same time. In fact, in a book
titled 'The World is Flat - A Brief History of the
Twenty-First Century', Thomas L. Friedman talks about the
widespread changes to world economies based on technological
advancements.
Friedman's message
centers around the fact that web-enabled and wireless
technologies are 'flattening' the world so that basic business
services such as call centers, back room accounting, and HR
department management can be provided from India or China,
just as easily as Pittsburgh. Restaurant reservations, income
tax returns, and flower deliveries will actually be completed
through Shanghai or Bangladesh,
as opposed to Boston or
Toronto.
His message is not
one of dire straits, although it does carry a warning that we
need to be prepared, and educated to adapt to the inevitable
changes that a 'flat' world will bring. Instead, the message
is one of changing opportunities, and better efficiencies, if
the reality is accepted, and the reaction is
proper.
So, where are we
going? Well, those teenagers will be watching TV on their cell
phones next year on a regular basis. Actually, my prediction
is that the term cell phone will disappear over the next few
years because of the vast number of functions that will be
available through a wireless device that will be portable.
Telephone calls will be just a minor part of the
mix.
At a recent
presentation I attended that was hosted by the Gartner Group,
the predictions included the ability to take temperature and
heart rate with the wireless device that will soon be on the
shelves, and therefore attached to your belt. Diabetics will
be able to monitor blood sugar. You will be able to read bar
codes, and check out right in the store, including the
monetary transaction. Your earpiece will talk to you to tell
you to turn left so you don't get lost as you drive through
the city. I don't think the device will make your lunch or tie
your shoes just yet, but perhaps I need to open my
mind.
At a recent
Conference for Schooley Mitchell Telecom Consultants, Mikko
Salminen of Nokia in Finland made a
presentation describing the migration of businesses to
wireless devices as opposed to the desk phones everyone has
been using since telephone invention. The statistics from
around the world are astounding, but that's the subject of
another article. Suffice it to say that businesses will
benefit from the ability of their people to communicate with
customers, vendors, and coworkers without having proximity to
their desk.
Yes, it's a brave
new world. In order to prosper, we must heed the message that
no man's knowledge here can go beyond his experience. In other
words, embracing new technologies, and accepting 'flatness'
will lead to opportunity. Opportunity, like oxygen must
continually be exchanged. Once oxygen is taken into your lungs
it turns to carbon dioxide. So as oxygen is the fuel of the
body but has a limited life, opportunity is the fuel of
success and future achievement. However, opportunity must be
used before it turns to the metaphorical carbon
dioxide.
So the message is
to accept that these changes are upon us. The world will
continue to develop more and more Internet applications to
make the rudimentary parts of life easier to manage. Wireless
applications will continue to develop and will astound us in
terms of what can be achieved. And the world will be
'flatter'. If that's a problem it's also an
opportunity.
Maybe
it's an even bigger opportunity than an economic one for those
wise enough to take advantage of the fluid and changing
environment. One of Friedman's tenets is that as the world
supply chains become more intermingled and interdependent
based on these technology advances, then the likelihood to war
with each other will become less. If companies are dependent
on companies in other countries to provide accounting
functions, HR management, and day-to-day services, then it
will be an encourager to work it out, instead of shoot it out.
Now that's a nice thought.
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